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There are few poker players that don’t tend to overplay pocket pairs, in limit poker, especially when the game is loose and you can see the flop for a single bet. When we hit the set on the flop most players are already adding the pot to their stack, but the real problem occurs when we don’t hit the flop. Do we call to see the turn? Most players do, and cite the odds as the reason, but let’s look at those odds.

After the flop the odds of catching a set on the turn are 2 out of 45 or about 22:1 against.

To get 22:1, 8 players must call 3 bets so somewhere you would have to call at least one raise with your small pair. I don’t think “loose: would be the right description for this table.

If you have 5 players call preflop and 4 callers on the flop, your odds are 9:1 To get implied odds for the turn, you would need to pick up 6 big bets on the turn and river so 4 callers for the turn and 2 callers on the river. So, you would have to put in at least 2 big bets, to get the proper implied odds and these calculations become moot because you are actually putting in 5 small bets to win 21 small bets, 21:5 or about 4:1. So the whole idea of implied odds supporting a call with an under pair on the turn is ludicrous, and your not even drawing to the nuts.

Your odds of completing a set on both the turn and the river are about 11:1 against.

To get 11:1, 6 players need to call at least 2 bets. This is a bit more plausible but now you are obligated to call bets on the turn for sure.

It may be simpler to get to the 11:1 but you still must expect to call a double bet on the turn. So now to cover your 3 bets requires that the 6 other players call must call a double bet on the turn and a double bet on the river.

Do you really want to go to showdown with a small set when there are 6 other callers?

Rule of thumb, limping with a small pair can be a winner if you flop the set, but chasing it to the turn will have the proper odds in only the rarest of situations.

GL

Editors Note: jbharshaw has written articles for me for over two years now, and has his own poker information site at www.bestpokerguide.net