Texas Hold’em: Rules of Poker #42

Sometimes you just assume that it is common knowledge, but I guess you should refer to Poker Rule #33: "If something is common knowledge, it isn’t." Recently I was talking with a good friend and excellent poker player, and she told me this exciting new thing she had learned; the rule of 4 and 2. I was surprised she hadn’t heard of it before, because it had been around for quite a while. I don’t know who actually thought of it, but I saw a great concept of a new article, and my deadline was approaching so here is Rule of Poker #42.

In Hold’em, after the flop with two cards to come, you can calculate the chance of catching your draw, by multiplying the number of outs, (cards that make your hand,) by 4. For example:

With a flush draw, you have 9 outs, the remaining 9 of your suit. If you multiply 9*4=36, you have approximately a 36% chance of completing your flush. To calculate the odds use the following formula:

36 : 64
Divide both sides by the chance that you will complete 36.
36/36 : 64/36
1 : 1.7 or approximately 2:1 against.

The true odds are 35% or 1 : 1.7 or approximately 2:1 against.

To call a bet you should get pot odds or implied odds of 2:1 if your flush will be the best hand on the end. If your flush might not be the best hand, you should probably fold unless you are getting better odds.

To calculate your odds with only a one card draw, (either the river, or the turn alone,) multiply your number of outs by 2. If we had missed our flush on the draw, our number of outs would still be 9. So, 9*2=18. The percentage chance of completing our flush is approximately 18%. To calculate the odds use the same formula as above.

18 : 82
Divide both sides by the chance that you would complete
18/18 : 82/18
1 : 4.5 (written correctly 9:2 against.)

The true odds are 20% or 4.1 to one.

Of course you wanted to calculate the odds of making your draw only on the turn, one card, you would multiply by 2 just like the river.

Okay guys, it is as much common knowledge as I can make it, and here is a reminder.

NOTE: Remember if there some of your outs would put a better hand out there, like a flush over your straight, or a paired board over your flush, you might want to subtract those cards from your possible outs.

Rules of Poker #42: In Hold’em, to calculate the chance of completing your draw with 2 cards to come, on the turn and the river. Multiply the number of outs by 4. To calculate the chance of completing your draw on only 1 card, the turn or the river, multiply the number of outs by 2. The answer is the percentage chance of you completing your draw.

GL

jb

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